Rare earths are widely used and continue to expand. Rare earth plays an important role in improving product performance, promoting product structure upgrading, and transitioning to clean energy. It not only involves traditional fields such as agriculture, textiles, metallurgy, petrochemicals, and glass ceramics, but also the production of special light sources and related equipment, national defense, military, Key materials for emerging industries such as smart manufacturing. Permanent magnet materials are the most important application field of rare earth, accounting for 26% of the global rare earth demand structure in 2020. Rare earth permanent magnet materials are developing rapidly, and now they have penetrated into robots, wind power equipment, new energy vehicles, energy-saving appliances, precision instruments, etc. Many fields provide a huge impetus for the development of rare earth industry. Common permanent magnet materials are usually divided into three categories, namely metal permanent magnets, ferrite permanent magnets and rare earth permanent magnets. As the third-generation rare earth permanent magnet material, NdFeB has the advantages of high remanence density, high coercive force and high magnetic energy product. It is the most magnetic permanent magnet material so far. It is the most widely used and fastest developing rare earth permanent magnet materials with fast speed and optimal comprehensive performance.
China is the largest producer of NdFeB permanent magnet materials
The global output of rare earth permanent magnet materials is increasing steadily. Overall, from 2015 to 2020, the global production of rare earth permanent magnets increased from 150,000 tons to 217,000 tons, of which China, as the main producer, increased its output from 135,000 tons to 196,000 tons. It is expected that the production capacity of rare earth permanent magnet materials will continue to maintain optimistic growth in the future. Assuming that the compound annual growth rate of global production is 7.4%, by 2025, the global production will be 310,000 tons, of which China will produce 284,000 tons. With the technological advancement of Chinese manufacturing enterprises and the policy encouragement of transformation to high-end products in recent years, the output of high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials in my country has risen rapidly, accounting for nearly 70% of the world's output.
Demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets for new energy vehicles
New energy vehicles have injected new momentum into the world's economic development. Under the background of "decarbonization", the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction in various countries focuses on the automobile industry, and the development of new energy vehicles has become an important strategic measure to cope with climate change and promote green development. The Biden administration has proposed raising the EV tax credit to $12,500 per vehicle, including $4,500 for union-made ones, and removing the cap on 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer at the $7,500 credit. In 2022, Germany will further increase the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles. The subsidy for the purchase of pure electric vehicles can be up to 9,000 euros, and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles can reach 6,750 euros. Britain has invested billions of dollars to help transition the transport sector to electricity and has pledged to ban the sale of new combustion-engine cars from 2030. China's new energy vehicle industry has entered a period of accelerated penetration. Since the State Council issued the "Development Plan for Energy Conservation and New Energy Automobile Industry (2012-2020)" by the State Council in 2012, the development of my country's new energy automobile industry has made great achievements.
New energy vehicles are expected to become the core driving force to increase the demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets. It is estimated that by 2025, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 23.274 million. Based on the average consumption of 2.5kg of high-performance NdFeB magnets per new energy vehicle, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets will reach 5.8 by 2025. tons.
Demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets in traditional cars
The application of high-performance NdFeB magnets in traditional automobiles is mainly Electric Power Steering (EPS), which plays a key role in vehicle stability, comfort and safety. The development of EPS steering system in my country's automobile industry is slightly later than that of developed countries in Europe and the United States. In recent years, the penetration rate of EPS in my country's passenger car market has increased rapidly, reaching 96.2% in 2020, but commercial vehicle steering systems are still dominated by HPS and EHPS. Therefore, there is still room for improvement in the EPS penetration rate of the Chinese auto market in the future, which will drive the growth of demand for high-performance NdFeB. By 2025, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB in the traditional automotive sector will exceed 21,000 tons.
Demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets in wind power generation
In 2020, representatives of more than 400 wind energy companies jointly issued the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration" at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference, pointing out that the global wind energy resource technology development potential is about 40 times the current global power demand, and the future development and utilization prospects are broad. In the first quarter of 2022, my country's newly installed wind power capacity will be 7.9 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. After 2025, China's average annual installed capacity of wind power will not be less than 60 million kilowatts, and it will reach at least 800 million kilowatts by 2030, and at least 3 billion kilowatts by 2060. While the installed capacity has increased rapidly, the wind power generation has also increased steadily. Domestic wind power generators mainly include permanent magnet direct drive wind turbines and double-fed wind turbines. Direct drive permanent magnet wind turbines use permanent magnet motors. Direct drive permanent magnet wind turbines have a large demand for NdFeB. Need to consume about 800 tons of high-performance NdFeB magnets. It is estimated that by 2025, the penetration rate of permanent magnet direct drive machines can increase to 35%. Based on this calculation, the global demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets for wind power installations will exceed 30,000 tons, and nearly half of them will come from China.
Inverter air conditioner needs high-performance NdFeB magnets
The "Green and Efficient Refrigeration Action Plan" issued in 2019 pointed out that by 2022, the energy efficiency access level of household air conditioners3 will increase by 30%, multi-connected air conditioners by 40%, refrigerated display cabinets by 20%, and heat pump water heaters by 20%; by 2030 In 2011, the energy efficiency access level of major refrigeration products will be increased by more than 15%. According to the newly implemented "Energy Efficiency Limits and Energy Efficiency Levels of Room Air Conditioners" starting in 2020, fixed-frequency air conditioners generally can only meet the requirements of Level 4 or Level 5, and will be completely phased out in 2022. Therefore, in order to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and to cope with climate change, energy-saving inverter air conditioners using high-performance sintered NdFeB permanent magnet materials will become more popular during the implementation of green and efficient refrigeration actions, and there will be great room for future growth. The production and sales of inverter air conditioners in my country have grown steadily. From January to October 2021, the output of inverter air conditioners reached 90.112 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%. Sales volume reached 90.336 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.0%; of which domestic sales were 72.27 million units, accounting for 80%, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%; exports were 18.067 million units, accounting for 20%, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. It is estimated that the output of China's energy-saving inverter air conditioners will exceed 200 million units in 2025, and the output will exceed 360 million units by 2030. Based on the fact that China's inverter air conditioner production accounts for 83.2% of the world's total, the global energy-saving inverter air conditioner production is expected to reach 260 million units and 440 million units in 2025 and 2030. Regardless of online or offline channels, inverter air conditioners account for more than 90% of the market product structure.
Demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets for energy-saving elevators
Elevator traction machine is the power equipment of the elevator, including permanent magnet synchronous traction machine and traditional asynchronous traction machine. The permanent magnet synchronous motor adopts high-performance permanent magnet materials and a special motor structure, and has the characteristics of energy saving, environmental protection, low speed and high torque. The output of elevators (including elevators, escalators and elevators) in my country is increasing year by year. From 2016 to 2021, the output of elevators will increase from 638,000 units to 1.545 million units, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19%. In 2020, the global elevator penetration rate will reach 85%, and it is expected that the penetration rate will increase to 90% year by year by 2025. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2025, China's elevator production will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 10%. Calculated on the basis that each energy-saving elevator consumes 6kg of high-performance NdFeB magnetic materials, the global and Chinese energy-saving elevator demand for high-performance NdFeB is expected to reach 17,000 tons and 12,000 tons in 2025.
The demand of industrial robots for high-performance NdFeB magnets
The development status of the robot industry is an important indicator of a country's technological innovation and high-end manufacturing level. Accelerating the promotion of high-quality development of the robot industry is beneficial to inject strong momentum into economic and social development. Industrial robots are automation equipment for intelligent manufacturing. At present, they mainly refer to multi-joint manipulators or multi-degree-of-freedom robots for the industrial field, which are used for handling, welding, assembly, processing, painting, and clean production in the industrial production process. Drive motors are the core components of industrial robots, and permanent magnet synchronous servo motors are the mainstream. High-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials are the key materials of servo motors, which help to improve the power and stability of the motor while simplifying the structure, reducing the volume and saving energy. The scale of my country's robot industry is growing rapidly, and industrial robots are becoming more and more popular.
Demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets for humanoid robots
A humanoid robot is a robot with human-like appearance characteristics. It not only has the movement ability of conventional robots, but also has vision, hearing and touch, and requires higher response speed and precision. Humanoid robots are not a new topic, but they have always been limited by technology during decades of research and development, and have been mainly limited to conceptual imagination, making it difficult to truly realize production and commercialization. Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus Prime will be officially unveiled on September 30, and mass production is planned for 2023. Musk’s positioning of Optimus Prime is a domestic service robot, which is used to replace people to complete repetitive, boring, and dangerous work. After mass production, each humanoid robot is priced at about 25,000 US dollars. A servo motor is an engine that controls the operation of mechanical components in a servo system. It converts voltage signals into torque and rotational speed to drive the controlled object and achieve precise control of speed and position. Rekindling the market's enthusiasm for humanoid robots has triggered a new wave of robot concept stocks.
Intelligent robots may become another growth pole of NdFeB demand.
Intelligent robots mainly include industrial robots, professional service robots and personal/home robots. High-performance NdFeB magnets are mainly used in sensors and drive motors of intelligent robots, and are the core materials of servo motors, which are the core components of robots. Musk is very optimistic about the development of the robot industry in the future. He believes that with the advancement of technology and the expansion of production scale, the average cost will gradually decrease, and the price of household robots may be lower than that of cars, becoming a normal consumer product within the range of consumers. He also predicted that by 2050, every home will have a robot. The "China Robot Industry Development Report (2022)" released by the Chinese Institute of Electronics shows that the robot industry is booming, and the global robot market will reach US$51.3 billion in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 14% from 2017 to 2022. From the category point of view, the service robot market is gradually growing. In 2021, it will be almost the same as the industrial robot market, and it will maintain a good growth trend. It is expected to become the leading force in the global robot market in the future.
The downstream demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets is mainly concentrated in the fields of new energy vehicles, traditional vehicles, wind power generation, energy-saving inverter air conditioners, energy-saving elevators, consumer electronics products, and industrial robots. The total demand in the above field's accounts for about 95%. As the new energy automobile industry continues to maintain high-speed development in the future, the development and mass production of humanoid robots will become the biggest driving force for the global demand for high-performance NdFeB magnets, and the demand structure will greatly change.